Oscars predictions 2023: The closest race yet


The 2023 Oscars are quickly approaching.  The nominees this year are diverse and very well qualified, predicting who will win each category is more difficult than ever.

Best Supporting Actress has only become harder to predict as the award season has progressed. By the end of January, it seemed as though Angela Bassett was on her way to winning her first Oscar for her portrayal as the grieving Queen Raymonda in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” She made history by being the first actor nominated for a DC/Marvel film. After winning at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, securing nominations at all the other major precursors (BAFTAs and SAGs), as well as the coveted Oscar nomination, it was looking like she’d have a clean sweep. Yet, Kerry Condon won at the BAFTAs for her portrayal as the sister of Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Jamie Lee Curtis won at the SAG awards for playing Deirdre, a grumpy auditor, in “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (the movie going into the Oscars with the most nominations). Perhaps the Oscars will surprise, with wins for Hong Chau as Liz in “The Whale” or Stephanie Hsu as Joy in “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” It is extremely rare to win the Oscar without also having won the SAG or BAFTA so this acting race is still very much up in the air.

The Best Supporting Actor race seems to be the clearest. Ke Huy Quan has won at almost every awards ceremony for his dynamic and mind-bending performance as Waymond Wang in “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” Barry Keoghan upset at the BAFTAs, winning for his role in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” He is nominated at the Oscars with his costar Brendan Gleeson.

Best Actor is a total toss up. Austin Butler won at the Golden Globes for Best Actor in a Drama for his role as Elvis Presley in “Elvis”, and Colin Farrell won in the Musical or Comedy category for his leading role in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Then, Brendan Fraser took the Critics Choice Award for his searing performance as an obese English teacher trying to reconnect with his teenage daughter in “The Whale.” Butler won the BAFTA (which Farrell was predicted to win) and Fraser took the SAG. Butler is in a critically acclaimed and publicly praised biopic of a beloved historical figure, whereas Fraser provided a heartbreaking performance. Both have a strong narrative and both have equal chances of victory come Oscar night.

The Best Actress category has already faced some controversy. One of the nominees, Andrea Riseborough, was investigated by the Academy after facing allegations of foul play in terms of campaigning for her nomination. Ana de Armas is also nominated for her role as Marilyn Monroe in the poorly received and controversial film “Blonde.” Though she’s scored nominations all season, a win from her is highly unlikely. The same goes for Michelle Williams who is nominated for her role as a fictionalized version of Steven Spielberg’s mother in “The Fabelmans.” She’s scored even fewer nominations at precursors than de Armas, so her taking home the trophy is improbable. Cate Blanchett is nominated for her role as Lydia Tár in “TÁR” and Michelle Yeoh is nominated for her role as Evelyn Wang in “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” The two have been neck and neck; Blanchett won at the Golden Globes for Drama, the Critics Choice, and the BAFTA awards. Yeoh won at the Golden Globes for Comedy and the SAG awards.

Blanchett already has two Oscar wins (Best Supporting Actress in 2005 for her role as Katharine Hepburn in “The Aviator” and Best Actress in 2014 as the titular character in “Blue Jasmine”) among eight nominations. Only seven actors in Oscars history have ever received three awards, and Blanchett could very well become the eighth. However, this is Yeoh’s first nod, and she has a strong narrative to back her up. Only one woman of color has ever won the Best Actress Oscar and Michelle Yeoh already made history by becoming the first Asian actress nominated in this category. Tune into the 95th Oscars on March 12 to see who wins.